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M94A2319.TXT
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Document 2319
DOCN M94A2319
TI Country-specific projections of the demographic impact of AIDS in the
coming decades.
DT 9412
AU Way PO; Stanecki K; Center for International Research, U.S. Bureau of
the Census,; Washington, DC 20233.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):331 (abstract no. PC0259). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370256
AB BACKGROUND. Levels of HIV infection continue to increase in many
countries, exceeding 5 percent of adults in urban areas in 13 African
countries and Haiti. At such levels, AIDS will begin to have substantial
demographic effects, even at the national level. METHODS. Data from the
HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database were used to establish HIV trends for
each of these countries. Each trend was matched to scenarios developed
using a mathematical AIDS model (iwgAIDS). The associated AIDS mortality
was combined with mortality rates projected with no AIDS.
Cohort-component methods were used to project the population of each
country to the year 2050, including AIDS mortality. RESULTS. AIDS
epidemics vary considerably, even among countries most affected. At the
epidemic's peak, life expectancy declines range from 9 to over 25 years
in these countries, compared to no AIDS. AIDS reduces population growth
rates by up to 2 percentage points, but population growth continues. In
these 13 African countries as a whole, AIDS more than doubles total
deaths by 2010. Crude death rates increase up to 150 percent. The 2020
population size of these countries is reduced by over 100 million,
compared to no AIDS. This difference results from direct AIDS mortality,
fewer births, and lost future population growth. CONCLUSION. Countries
in which AIDS epidemics have already taken off must begin to the plan
for the likely increases in mortality in the coming decades. Countries
with lower HIV prevalence should act quickly to implement control and
prevention programs.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/
TRANSMISSION Africa/EPIDEMIOLOGY Cause of Death Cohort Studies
*Cross-Cultural Comparison Forecasting Haiti/EPIDEMIOLOGY Human HIV
Seroprevalence/*TRENDS Population Growth Survival Analysis Urban
Population/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).